Predicting the Failure of Developmental Gold Mining Projects

This paper investigates firm‐level financial and non‐financial information and their association with project failure for a sample of pre‐production gold development firms. Pre‐revenue generating ‘single project’ mining companies are chosen, since project failure is synonymous with company failure for these firms. The setting is interesting due to the high information asymmetry and limitations of the GAAP‐based Altman Z‐score in this context. A definition of project failure is applied and both financial and non‐financial predictors are compared. Failure is driven by whether the deposit is open pit or underground, and whether the cash cost of production is disclosed at feasibility completion.     

Analyst reputation and the issuance of disaggregated earnings forecasts to I/B/E/S

Although sell-side analysts privately forecast revenues and expenses when producing earnings forecasts, not all analysts choose to provide I/B/E/S with earnings forecasts disaggregated into revenues and expenses. We investigate the role of reputation in explaining this decision. We find that analysts without established reputations are more likely than reputable analysts to issue disaggregated earnings forecasts to I/B/E/S, consistent with I/B/E/S exposure benefits accruing to analysts seeking to establish a reputation. Among less reputable analysts, those with high ability are more likely to disaggregate, consistent with this group reaping greater benefits from the exposure I/B/E/S provides. Additional tests support our primary hypotheses. Among less reputable analysts, those who disaggregate are more (less) likely to be promoted (demoted or terminated). The stock market responds similarly, with more weight assigned to earnings forecast revisions provided by analysts who disaggregate their earnings forecasts.     

Taming the City? Ideas,Structural Power and the Evolution of British Banking Policy Amidst the Great Financial Meltdown

We are increasingly learning more about the contingencies and independent variables that shape the structural power of business and financial interests. This paper contributes to this research by analysing factors that led to weakening in the structural power of financial interests in the City of London in the aftermath of the 2007/2008 crisis. We focus on under-researched mediators of structural power dynamics, especially the context of action and the agency and ideas of state leaders. Prior to the crisis, closed regulatory policy and a prevailing discourse premised upon the notion of market efficiency, helped to reinforce the structural power of the UK banking and financial sector. After the crisis heightened politicisation, more assertive state leadership, and especially ideational revision, has increasingly challenged the power of the City. We illustrate this through an examination of the Independent Commission on Banking's proposals in relation to the ‘ring fencing’ of investment and retail banks.     

Speak no evil: Known defects in the FTC's used car rule

In 1981, the Federal Trade Commission issued a trade regulation rule on the sale of used cars. This rule required dealers to disclose known defects to prospective purchasers.Under the law at that time, Congress could veto such a rule. It did so. The veto, however, was challenged in court and the United States Supreme Court ruled the veto unconstitutional thus reinstating the rule.Before the rule could take effect however, the FTC (whose membership had changed in the meantime) decided to reconsider whether the rule should contain known defects disclosure. Subsequently, the Used Car Rule was reissued (effective May 9, 1985) deleting this important consumer protection.This article analyzes and criticizes the rationale for the deletion of the known defects disclosure requirement.

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Sag nichts Böses: Die Behandlung bekannter Mängel in den behördlichen Richtlinien zum Verkauf von Gebrauchtwagen in den USA

Zusammenfassung Die Federal Trade Commission (FTC), die amerikanische Handels- und Wettbewerbsbehörde, erließ 1981 eine Richtlinie über den Gebrauchtwagenverkauf. Nach dieser Richtlinie waren Gebrauchtwagenhändler verpflichtet, bekannte Mängel der Wagen gegenüber Kaufinteressenten offenzulegen. Nach damaligem Recht konnte der Kongreß gegen diese Richtlinie sein Veto einlegen, was er auch tat. Dieses Veto wiederum wurde vor Gericht angefochten, woraufhin der oberste amerikanische Gerichtshof entschied, daß das Veto verfassungswidrig sei, und die ursprüngliche Richtlinie wieder in Kraft setzte.Bevor diese Richtlinie jedoch rechtskräftig werden konnte, beschloß die FTC (deren personelle Zusammensetzung sich inzwischen geändert hat), noch einmal zu überdenken, ob die Richtlinie endgültig die Bestimmung zur Offenlegung bekannter Mängel enthalten solle. Schließlich wurde die Richtlinie im Mai des Jahres 1985 ohne diese wichtige Vorschrift zum Schutz des Verbrauchers wieder in Kraft gesetzt.Der Beitrag analysiert und kritisiert den Hintergrund der Entscheidung, die Vorschrift zur Offenlegung bekannter Fahrzeugmängel entfallen zu lassen.

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Stephen J. Nicks is Assistant Attorney General in the Department of Justice, State of Wisconsin, P.O. Box 7857, Madison, WI 53707, USA.     

Comparing vertical restraints

When faced with the need to protect dealer provision of promotional services for their products, manufacturers have continued to impose resale price maintenance (RPM) in preference to providing exclusive territories, even though the latter are legal while RPM is not. This paper compares RPM and territories, finding that RPM raises retail prices by less, but also supports less service provision than the exclusive territories alternative. Indeed, exclusive territories raise prices and generate more services than full manufacturer integration into distribution. This result calls into question the current contrasting legal treatment of territories and RPM.     

Cross-border mergers and acquisitions vs. greenfield foreign direct investment: The role of firm heterogeneity

We develop a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms to address two sets of questions: (1) what are the characteristics of firms that choose the various modes of foreign market access (exporting, greenfield FDI, and cross-border M&A), and (2) how does the international organization of production vary across industries and country-pairs? We show that the answers to these questions depend on the nature of firm heterogeneity. Depending on whether firms differ in their mobile or immobile capabilities, cross-border mergers involve the most or the least efficient active firms. The comparative statics on industry and country characteristics display a similar dichotomy.     

The influence of consumer socialisation in the home on gender differences in financial literacy

The lower level of financial literacy amongst females relative to males has been well documented in the literature. There has however been a less than compelling argument constructed as to why this discrepancy occurs. This article introduces findings showing the influence the home, particularly financial discussions in the home, has on the financial literacy levels of children and young adults. A key finding is that males have their first financial discussion in the home at a younger age than females on average, with this differential statistically significant across students of differing socioeconomic status. For males, the age of the child when they have their first financial discussion in the home influences their financial literacy levels some years later at university, even accounting for other variables such as socioeconomic status. The findings of this article suggest that financial socialisation in the home may be subject to a gender bias, which over time contributes to differential financial literacy knowledge levels between the genders.     

Endogenous market incompleteness without market frictions: Dynamic suboptimality of competitive equilibrium in multiperiod overlapping generations economies

In this paper, we show that within the set of stochastic three-period-lived OLG economies with productive assets (such as land), markets are necessarily sequentially incomplete, and agents in the model do not share risk optimally. We start by characterizing perfect risk-sharing and find that it requires state-dependent consumption claims which depend only on the exogenous shock realizations. We show then that the recursive competitive equilibrium of any overlapping generations economy with weakly more than three generations is not strongly stationary. This then allows us to show directly that there are short-run Pareto improvements possible in terms of risk-sharing and hence, that the recursive competitive equilibrium is not Pareto optimal. We then show that a financial reform which eliminates the equity asset and replaces it with zero net supply insurance contracts (Arrow securities) will implement to Pareto optimal stochastic steady-state known to exist in the model. Finally, we also show via numerical simulations that a system of government taxes and transfers can lead to a Pareto improvement over the competitive equilibrium in the model.